Work

What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning

Year: 2023

Type: article

Abstract: This article investigates the spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban municipalities. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and nonlinear predictive models are applied, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods are used to interpret the shape of relationships between the dependent variable and the most important regressors. The support vector regression algorithm is found to yield the most accurate predictions of the number of migrants to the suburbs of Warsaw. In addition, we find that migrants choose wealthier and more urbanised municipalities that offer better institutional amenities and a shorter driving time to Warsaw’s city centre.

Source: The Annals of Regional Science

DOI: 10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y

Authors: Honorata Bogusz, Szymon Winnicki, Piotr Wójcik

Institution: University of Warsaw

Language: English

Topic: Urbanization and City Planning

Subfield: Urban Studies

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Reduced inequalities

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,790