Year: 2023
Type: article
Abstract: The EU recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of -55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study instigates a model inter-comparison exercise to assess the EU’s path, from ‘Fit for 55’ in 2030, to an intermediate milestone in 2040, onto net-zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and Member State levels. Our results validate the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors, while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonisation of power and upstream energy by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45-65% in 2030 to 75-90% in 2050 in the electricity mix) and carbon capture and storage (0.5-2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of Member States for net-zero, and timing of coal phase out and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.
Source: Joule
Authors: Baptiste Boitier, Alexandros Nikas, Ajay Gambhir, Konstantinos Koasidis, Alessia Elia, Khaled Al-Dabbas, Şirin Alibaş, Lorenza Campagnolo, Alessandro Chiodi, Elisa Delpiazzo, Haris Doukas, Arnaud Fougeyrollas, Maurizio Gargiulo, Pierre Le Mouël, Felix Neuner, Sigit Perdana, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Marc Vielle, Paul Zagamé, Shivika Mittal
Institutions: Seureco (France), National Technical University of Athens, Imperial College London, E4SMA (Italy), Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Basque Centre for Climate Change, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $9,080
Funder: European Commission
OpenAlex ID: W4388947754