Nonlinear Dynamics of Mountain Pine Beetle Populations: Discussion of Forestry Policy, a Survey of Existing Mathematical Models, and Code Base Demonstration
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: This article presents existing mathematical models associated with mountain pine beetle populations in lodgepole pine forests, whose reproductive cycle requires the destruction of colonized host trees, decreasing timber availability/quality, and providing fuel sources for wildfires. With the existence of a positive-feedback loop with environmental warming, the need for intervention and management is clear. However, the legislative responses to the focusing events from our 2000-2010 North American epidemics are characterized as under-leveraged. While the reasons for this are multifaceted, increasing the capacity of STEM-informed individuals to take part in quantitative modeling of the underlying ecosystem generates awareness and provides pathways connecting the ``how'' of public land management to the ``what'' and ``why'' of policy creation. To this end, we survey existing mathematical models for the mountain pine beetle, ranging from a simple planar model to a chemotactic model involving pheromone/kairomone signaling between beetles and host trees. The latter can be localized to a host tree characterized by a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations whose solution is reasonable to approximate numerically.
Source: CODEE Journal
Authors: Scott Strong, Maya Maes-Johnson
Institution: Colorado School of Mines
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Life on land
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4390811670