Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of 'Lassa-X'-a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant-and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7 million (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1-3.4 million) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over 10 years in 2.0 million (793,800-3.9 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified 'endemic' districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1 million ($8.2-$39.0 million) in lost DALY value and $128.2 million ($67.2-$231.9 million) in societal costs (2021 international dollars ($)). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2 million DALYs within 2 years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.
Source: Nature Medicine
Authors: David R. M. Smith, Joanne Turner, Patrick Fahr, Lauren A. Attfield, Paul R. Bessell, Christl A. Donnelly, Rory Gibb, Kate E. Jones, David W. Redding, Danny Asogun, Oladele Oluwafemi Ayodeji, Benedict N. Azuogu, William A. Fischer, Kamji Jan, Adebola T. Olayinka, David A. Wohl, Andrew A. Torkelson, Katelyn A. Dinkel, Emily J. Nixon, Koen B. Pouwels, T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
Institutions: University of Oxford, University of Liverpool, University College London, Imperial College London, Natural History Museum, Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Federal Medical Centre, Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Nigeria Centre for Disease Control
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $12,290
Funders: Li Ka Shing Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit, National Institute for Health and Care Research, University of Oxford, Medical Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
OpenAlex ID: W4401958783