A new local area energy mapping approach for targeting high-density deployment of heat pumps in the UK
Year: 2023
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: Heat pumps will be critical for meeting the UK’s legally binding commitment to achieve net zero by 2050. An area-based approach that has the capability to target homes at scale is necessary for rapid deployment of heat pumps.This paper describes the application of an online and interactive local area energy mapping tool (LEMAP) that brings together GIS based spatial data on energy, buildings, socio-demographics, tenure, fuel poverty and electricity networks to (1) identify appropriate dwellings for air source heat pump installation in a concentrated area (Rose Hill comprising 1500 dwellings) in Oxford (UK) and (2) evaluate the change in electricity demand profiles and resultant load on secondary substations as a result.The approach was designed around three stages. (1) Dwelling suitability, i.e., were the dwellings of the right building age, form, and energy efficiency? (2) Capability assessment, i.e., were the householders socially and economically more likely to install heat pumps? The capability assessment included consideration of technical suitability, likely economic circumstances, social and digital characteristics of each dwelling in the target area (3) Grid loading with 25% deployment of heat pumps in each secondary substation area, using local network data quantifying headroom of the substations overlaid with suitable dwellings.The study uses a new mapping tool called LEMAP with the capability to baseline, target, and forecast energy consumption for local area energy planning. The LEMAP tool brings together public, private and crowdsourced data on energy demand, energy resources, building attributes, socio-demographics, fuel poverty and electricity networks within the ESRI ArcGIS platform. Postcode and dwelling level energy demand profiles are generated using the CREST energy demand model. The tool has been organised around four technical and four engagement elements that include ‘Baselining’ local area energy flows in relation to socio-economic characteristics; ‘Targeting’ suitable properties for low carbon technologies (LCT) such as rooftop solar, heat pumps, EV chargers; ‘Forecasting’ energy demand profiles at postcode level for different LCT scenarios; and ‘Capability profile’ to show the social, digital and financial propensity of the household to take up low carbon technologies. The engagement elements include: ‘Participatory mapping’ to allow residents to visualise their energy demand profiles, compare against the neighbourhood and see how the profile changes with LCTs; ‘Storymap’ for creating blogs on local energy flows; ‘Dashboard’ for summarising the results by postcode; and ‘Forum’ to enable chats amongst users of LEMAP and project stakeholders.The LEMAP approach allowed us to score and rank every postcode and dwelling in the case study area on the basis of technical suitability for a heat pump and the likelihood of householders to be both interested and capable of taking the offer. Postcodes with highest aggregate suitability for heat pumps were grouped by secondary substation area. After the top four postcodes within two secondary substation areas were identified, the top 25% of dwellings in each substation were filtered based on their suitability and capability. This amounted to 150 private and social housing dwellings with capability to install heat pumps across three secondary substations with existing grid loading of 40-60%.The target post code areas and dwellings identified were also presented to the local community group in a workshop to verify the conclusions of the analysis and to capture further information about the neighbourhoods’ social and economic structure, priorities and engagement strategy.LEMAP approach with its versatile data on technical, social, digital and financial capabilities along with tenure and grid loading, has helped to build up an assessment of precise numbers of suitable dwellings and their likelihood of responding to value proposition to take-up of heat pumps in local areas.
Authors: Rajat Gupta, Matt Gregg
Institution: Oxford Brookes University
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4392628732