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Hemispheric asymmetric response of tropical cyclones to CO2 emission reduction

Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural hazards for coastal regions, and their response to human activities has broad socio-economic relevance. So far, how TC responds to climate change mitigation remains unknown, complicating the design of adaptation policies. Using net-zero and negative carbon emission experiments, we reveal a robust hemisphere-asymmetric hysteretic TC response to CO2 reduction. During the decarbonization phase, the Northern Hemisphere TC frequency continues to decrease for several more decades, while the Southern Hemisphere abruptly shifts to a stormier state, with the timescales depending on mitigation details. Such systematic changes are largely attributed to the planetary-scale reorganization of vertical wind shear and midlevel upward motion associated with the hysteretic southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, underpinned by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and El Niño-like mean state changes. The hemispheric contrast in TC response will potentially exacerbate regional socio-economic disparities under climate change mitigation.
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00632-2
Authors: Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Jiuwei Zhao, Seok-Woo Son, Fei-Fei Jin, Ruifen Zhan
Institutions: Yonsei University, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Seoul National University, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Fudan University
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,390
Funders: National Research Foundation, Korea Meteorological Administration, National Research Foundation of Korea, Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea, Korea Research Environment Open Network, National Supercomputing Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information
OpenAlex ID: W4393392587
FWCI: 2.417
Cites: 102
Cited by: 13
Related to: 10