Projections of Peak Water Timing From the East Rongbuk Glacier, Mt. Everest, Using a Higher‐Order Ice Flow Model
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: In this study, we apply a three‐dimensional (3D) thermomechanically coupled higher‐order ice flow model to simulate the East Rongbuk Glacier (ERG), Mt. Everest. We first diagnostically investigate its present‐day ice dynamic features in 2009 and then prognostically simulate the glacier during the time period 2010–2100. The ice flow model is initialized based on a Robin‐type inversion method by conducting six sensitivity experiments relating to glacier thermal boundary conditions. We apply two different surface mass balance parameterizations in the model, and both of them can reproduce the observed ice volume loss (around 0.1 km3) during 2010–2020. We find that ERG is likely to experience maximum meltwater runoff at the year 2030 under the SSP‐126 scenario, while under SSP‐370 and ‐585 scenarios, the peak water will both likely occur at around 2060. The ice dynamics may contribute more to ice loss as climate warms in time.
Source: Earth s Future
DOI: 10.1029/2024ef004545
Authors: Tong Zhang, Yuzhe Wang, Wei Leng, Hongyu Zhao, Willliam Colgan, Che Wang, Minghu Ding, Weijun Sun, Wei Yang, Xin Li, Jiawen Ren, Cunde Xiao
Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Shandong Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Scientific and Engineering Computing, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Capital Normal University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,890
OpenAlex ID: W4395701282