Work

Defining the analytical complexity of decision problems under uncertainty based on their pivotal properties

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Background: Uncertainty poses a pervasive challenge in decision analysis and risk management. When the problem is poorly understood, probabilistic estimation exhibits high variability and bias. Analysts then utilize various strategies to find satisficing solutions, and these strategies can sometimes adequately address even highly complex problems. Previous literature proposed a hierarchy of uncertainty, but did not develop a quantitative score of analytical complexity. Methods: In order to develop such a score, this study reviewed over 90 strategies to cope with uncertainty, including methods utilized by expert decision-makers such as engineers, military planners and others. Results: It found that many decision problems have pivotal properties that enable their solution despite uncertainty, including small action space, reversibility and others. The analytical complexity score of a problem could then be defined based on the availability of these properties.

Source: PeerJ Computer Science

DOI: 10.7717/peerj-cs.2195

Author: Alexander Gutfraind

Institutions: Amazon (United States), Loyola University Chicago, University of Illinois Chicago, Loyola Medicine

Language: English

Topic: Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Subfield: General Decision Sciences

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,395

Funders: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases