Work

Climate impacts of critical mineral supply chain bottlenecks for electric vehicle deployment

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: New tailpipe emissions standards aim to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales in the United States. Here, we analyze the associated critical mineral supply chain constraints and enumerate the climate consequences of these constraints. Our work yields five findings. First, the proposed standard necessitates replacing at least 10.21 million new internal combustion engine vehicles with EVs between 2027 and 2032. Second, based on economically viable and geologically available mineral reserves, manufacturing sufficient EVs is plausible and reduces up to 457.3 million tons of CO2e. Third, mineral production capacities in the United States and amongst allies support the deployment of 5.09 million vehicles between 2027 and 2032, well short of compliance target. Fourth, this shortfall produces at least 59.54 million tons of CO2e in lost lifecycle emissions benefits. Fifth, limited production of battery-grade graphite and cobalt may represent particularly profound constraints. Pathways that afford comparable emission reductions are subsequently explored. Nunes and colleagues analyze supply chain constraints and climate consequences of new tailpipe emissions standards in the US. They find that the standards promote electric vehicle adoption and would reduce emissions significantly, but adoption may be constrained by critical mineral supplies.

Source: Nature Communications

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51152-9