The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: This study uses experiments from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to compare the influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activity of: (i) the atmospheric effect of aerosols under specified sea-surface temperatures (SSTs); and (ii) the net effect of greenhouse gases (GhGs) (including changes in SSTs). The experiments were performed using the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario with GhG-induced SST warming specified and atmospheric aerosol effects simulated but without explicit ocean coupling. Insignificant changes in global TC frequency are found in response to the atmospheric effect of future aerosols and GhGs, as significant regional responses in TC frequency counteract each other. Future GhGs contribute to more frequent TCs in the North Atlantic, and reductions over the Northwestern Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean. The atmospheric effect of future aerosols drives more frequent TCs over the Northwestern Pacific and reductions over the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic. Along with increases in TC intensity, global TC precipitation (TCP) is projected to increase by 52.8% (14.1%/K) due to the combined effect of future aerosols and GhGs. Although both forcings contribute to TCP increases (14.7–19.3% from reduced aerosols alone and 28.1–33.3% from increased GhGs alone), they lead to different responses in the spatial structure of TCP. TCP increases preferentially in the inner-core due to increased GhGs, whereas TCP decreases in the inner-core and increases in the outer-bands in response to the atmospheric effects of decreased aerosols. These changes are distinct from those caused by aerosol-induced SST changes, which have been considered in other studies.
Source: Climate Dynamics
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,590
Awards: THE FORCED TRENDS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EARTH SYSTEM MODELS, Collaborative Research: The Relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity and Tropical Cyclones in a Hierarchy of Models, VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS: COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN DRIVERS AND COASTAL IMPACTS, Collaborative Research: NSFGEO-NERC: Hurricane Risk Amplification and Changing North Atlantic Natural Disasters
OpenAlex ID: W4401538026