Business Cycle and Early Warning Indicators for the Economy of Hong Kong– Challenges of Forecasting Work amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: This paper discusses the use of the OECD’s framework to identify early warning indicators for building a Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) and the use of the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) for constructing a short-term forecasting model of economic growth of Hong Kong. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper further evaluates the performance of the CLI and forecasting model which were built based on pre-COVID-19 parameters and identify further adjustments to enhance the model performance.
Authors: Sharon Pun-wai Ng, Eddie Ming-lok Kwok, Brian Chi-yan Cheng, Alfred Yiu-po Yuen
Institution: Government of Hong Kong
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,090
OpenAlex ID: W4401811162