Work

A Real‐Time Prediction System of the Intensity of Solar Energetic Proton Events Based on a Solution of the Diffusion Equation

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: In this study, based on solar energetic particle (SEP) events classification and a solution of the diffusion equation, we present an efficient system, HITSEP, to predict the intensities in different energy channels (P4 15.0–44.0 MeV, P5 40.0–80.0 MeV, and P6 80.0–165.0 MeV) of energetic proton events observed by GOES spacecraft. The system can predict the rising phase (especially the peak time and peak intensity) of the energetic proton events using only a small amount of data at the beginning of the solar energetic proton events. Among the events that meet the conditions for the use of our prediction system from 2003 to 2017, for P4, P5, and P6 channels, the median Warning Times are 3.70, 2.52, and 1.69 hr; the median Error of the Intensity for events are 0.43, 0.23, 0.34 orders of magnitude; the median Error of the Peak Time for events are 2.53, 0.55, 0.43 hr, respectively. Our system is based on physical mechanisms and has a high accuracy in forecasting the peak intensity with a strict definition of the error. The HITSEP system has huge potential to apply in the space weather forecast. The application of the HITSEP system in space weather forecasting is very promising.

Source: Space Weather

DOI: 10.1029/2023sw003725

Authors: Y. Zhang, Y. Wang, X. Li, P. B. Zuo

Institutions: Harbin Institute of Technology, University of Glasgow, Chinese Academy of Sciences, National Space Science Center

Language: English

Topic: Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics

Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics

Field: Physics and Astronomy

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,890

Funders: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province