Work

The driving of North American climate extremes by North Pacific stationary-transient wave interference

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Wave interference between transient waves and climatological stationary waves is a useful framework for diagnosing the magnitude of stationary waves. Here, we find that the wave interference over the North Pacific Ocean is an important driver of North American wintertime cold and heavy precipitation extremes in the present climate, but that this relationship is projected to weaken under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. When daily circulation anomalies are in-phase with the climatological mean state, the anomalous transport of heat and moisture causes the enhanced occurrence of cold extremes across the continental U.S. and a significant decrease of heavy precipitation extremes in the western U.S. In a future emissions scenario, the climatological stationary wave over the eastern North Pacific weakens and shifts spatially, which alters and generally weakens the relationship between wave interference and North American climate extremes. Our results underscore that the prediction of changes in regional wave interference is pivotal for understanding the future regional climate variability. The authors show that stationary wave interference over the North Pacific Ocean is an important driver of North American wintertime cold and heavy precipitation extremes in the present climate, but the link weakens under increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: Nature Communications

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51601-5

Authors: Mingyu Park, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Thomas L. Delworth

Institutions: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $6,790