Work

Short‐term load interval prediction with unilateral adaptive update strategy and simplified biased convex cost function

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: This article proposes a unilateral Adaptive update strategy based Interval Prediction (AIP) model for short‐term load prediction, which is developed based on lower and upper bound estimation (LUBE) architecture. In traditional LUBE interval prediction model, the model training is usually trained by heuristic algorithms. In this article, the model training is formulated as a bi‐level optimization problem with the help of proposed unilateral adaptive update strategy and cost function. In lower‐level problem, a simplified biased convex cost function is developed to supervise the learning direction of basic prediction engines. The basic prediction engine utilizes Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to extract features and Full connected Neural Network (FNN) to generate interval boundary. In upper‐level problem, a unilateral adaptive update strategy with unilateral coverage rate is put forward. It iteratively tunes hyper‐parameters of cost function during training process. Comprehensive experiments based on residential load data are implemented and the proposed interval prediction model outperforms the tested state‐of‐the‐art algorithms, achieving a 15% reduction in prediction error and a 20% decrease in computational time.

Source: IET Generation Transmission & Distribution

DOI: 10.1049/gtd2.13259

Authors: Shu Zheng, Huan Long, Zhi Wu, Wei Gu, Jingtao Zhao, Runhao Geng

Institutions: NARI Group (China), Southeast University

Language: English

Topic: Energy Load and Power Forecasting

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,940