Uncovering the Sino‐US Dynamic Risk Spillovers Effects: Evidence From Agricultural Futures Markets
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: ABSTRACT With economic globalization and the financialization of agricultural products continuing to advance, the interconnections between different agricultural futures have become closer. We utilize a TVP‐VAR‐DY model combined with the quantile method to measure the risk spillover between 11 agricultural futures in the United States and China from July 9, 2014, to December 31, 2022. We obtain several findings. First, CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are identified as the primary risk transmitters, with DCE corn and soybean as the main risk receivers. Second, sudden events or increased economic uncertainty can enlarge the overall risk spillovers. Third, there is an aggregation of risk spillovers amongst agricultural futures based on the dynamic directional spillovers. Lastly, the central agricultural futures under the conditional mean are CBOT corn and soybean, while CZCE hard wheat and long‐grained rice are the two risk‐spillover centers in extreme cases, as per the results of the spillover network and minimum spanning tree.
Source: Journal of Futures Markets
DOI: 10.1002/fut.22551
Authors: Han‐Yu Zhu, Peng‐Fei Dai, Wei‐Xing Zhou
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4402051185