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Weakening of La Niña Impact on Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Under Global Warming

Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: As global warming intensifies, the coupling relationship between negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD) and La Niña has substantially changed. However, the characteristics and mechanisms of these changes are not yet fully understood. Here, we find that the impact of La Niña on nIOD has considerably weakened since 1999, with the frequency of nIOD occurrences during La Niña years plummeting to a mere one‐third of the pre‐1999 levels. This is primarily attributed to the early onset of Indian summer monsoon and the decrease in La Niña intensity, while the effect of variations in Bjerknes feedback is relatively minor. Model simulations suggest that the influence of La Niña on nIOD will continue to weaken under future global warming through similar mechanisms as in the observations, increasing the complexity of air‐sea coupling in the Indian Ocean.
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl110039
Authors: Yongcan Zu, Shuangwen Sun, Yue Fang, Lin Liu, Libao Gao, Guijun Guo, Jun Li
Institutions: Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Theoretical Physics
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,900
OpenAlex ID: W4402059837
FWCI: 1.066
Cites: 12
Cited by: 6
Related to: 10