Work

A lifecycle model approach for predicting mangrove extent.

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Tidal dynamics are a well-known driver of mangrove distribution, with most predictive measures using some form of tidal parameter (tidal plane or hydroperiod) to define mangrove extent. However, these methods often fail to consider the causative reason why mangroves thrive or perish at a specific elevation or how mangrove survivability thresholds can differ across a species’ lifecycle. Our inability to understand the drivers of mangrove establishment has led to the poor success rate of many mangrove restoration and creation projects worldwide.Using a multi-forcing threshold approach, a novel lifecycle model is proposed to simulate Avicennia marina viability across establishment and development phases. The lifecycle model includes critical threshold stages, including reproduction, propagule dispersal, propagule establishment, seedling development, and mature tree survival. The model was validated at 38 sites in eastern Australia to predict mangrove extent across various estuary types and tidal dynamic conditions. Results from the lifecycle model indicate that Avicennia marina mangrove forests are subject to highly dynamic spatial and temporal conditions. Initial establishment pressures were shown to be a primary constraint on mangrove extent, although estuarine typology also plays an important role in forcing threshold limits and establishment opportunities. Mangroves in estuaries with negligible tidal attenuation were shown to have a greater opportunity to establish than typologies with significant tidal attenuation. Regardless of estuary typology, all sites tested had substantial spatial variability through time.Results from the lifecycle model suggest that mature trees are more resilient to sea level rise pressures than juvenile or seedlings. This suggests that mature mangroves may have a higher tolerance to increased inundation regimes and may be able to adapt to increased inundation via biophysical adaptations. Overall, this study highlights the importance of a causal method for predicting mangrove extent and the role of estuarine tidal thresholds on the lifecycle of a mangrove.

Source: The Science of The Total Environment

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175962

Authors: Brad Henderson, William Glamore

Institution: UNSW Sydney

Language: English

Topic: Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics

Subfield: Ecology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Life on land, Life below water

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,990