A Study on the Impact Mechanism of WTI Futures Price Forecasting Considering Mutation Factors
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Crude oil futures price forecasting plays a crucial role in assessing energy demand, promoting the development of renewable energy, formulating environmental protection policies, and achieving a balance between economic development and environmental protection. Limited studies have focused on exploring this phenomenon from the perspective of establishing or explaining the influence mechanism. This paper conducts three sets of experiments based on existing theoretical studies. Specifically, the control group solely employs price for prediction, the conventional group integrates conventional factors onto this basis, and the mutation group further incorporates the influence mechanism of mutation factors based on the conventional group. Comparative analysis of the experimental results between the control and conventional groups reveals the underlying principles of how conventional factors influence price trends, and the experiments between the conventional and mutation groups simulate price directions during unexpected situations. The results demonstrate that prediction accuracy follows the order of the mutation group, conventional group, and control group, thus validating the hypothesis proposed in this paper. These research findings hold great significance for futures price prediction and provide valuable insights for related theories.
Authors: Shenhui Song, Haisheng Yu
Institution: Ludong University
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4402145333