Work

A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: The capability to anticipate the exceptionally rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf and its evolution over the next decade could enable effective mitigation for coastal communities and marine resources. However, global climate models have struggled to accurately predict this warming due to limited resolution; and past regional downscaling efforts focused on multi‐decadal projections, neglecting predictive skill associated with internal variability. We address these gaps with a high resolution (1/12°) ensemble of dynamically downscaled decadal predictions. The downscaled simulations accurately predicted past oceanic variability at scales relevant to marine resource management, with skill typically exceeding global coarse‐resolution predictions. Over the long term, warming of the Shelf is projected to continue; however, we forecast a temporary warming pause in the next decade. This predicted pause is attributed to internal variability associated with a transient, moderate strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2024gl110946

Authors: Vimal Koul, Andrew C. Ross, Charles Stock, Liping Zhang, Thomas Delworth, Andrew Wittenberg

Institutions: Princeton University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Life below water, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,900