Work

Prediction of Key Development Indicators for Offshore Oilfields Based on Artificial Intelligence

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: As terrestrial oilfields continue to be explored, the difficulty of exploring new oilfields is constantly increasing. The ocean, which contains abundant oil and gas resources, has become a new field for oil and gas resource development. It is estimated that the total amount of oil resources contained in ocean areas accounts for 33% of the global total, while the corresponding natural gas resources account for 32% of the world’s resources. Current prediction methods, tailored to land oilfields, struggle with offshore differences, hindering accurate forecasts. With oilfield advancements, a vast amount of rapidly generated, complex, and valuable data has piled up. This paper uses AI and GRN-VSN NN to predict offshore oilfield indicators, focusing on model-based formula fitting. It selects highly correlated input indicators for AI-driven prediction of key development metrics. Afterwards, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method was introduced to explain the artificial intelligence model and achieve a reasonable explanation of the measurement’s results. In terms of crude-oil extraction degree, the performance levels of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, BP neural network, and ResNet-50 neural network are compared. LSTM excels in crude-oil extraction prediction due to its monotonicity, enabling continuous time-series forecasting. Artificial intelligence algorithms have good prediction effects on key development indicators of offshore oilfields, and the prediction accuracy exceeds 92%. The SHAP algorithm offers a rationale for AI model parameters, quantifying input indicators’ contributions to outputs.

Source: Energies

DOI: 10.3390/en17184594