A noisy-input generalized additive model for relative sea-level change along the Atlantic coast of North America
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: We propose a Bayesian, noisy-input, spatial–temporal generalized additive model to examine regional relative sea-level (RSL) changes over time. The model provides probabilistic estimates of component drivers of regional RSL change via the combination of a univariate spline capturing a common regional signal over time, random slopes and intercepts capturing site-specific (local), long-term linear trends and a spatial–temporal spline capturing residual, non-linear, local variations. Proxy and instrumental records of RSL and corresponding measurement errors inform the model and a noisy-input method accounts for proxy temporal uncertainties. Results highlight the decomposition of regional RSL changes over 3,000 years along North America’s Atlantic coast. The physical process glacial isostatic adjustment prevailed before 1800 CE, with anthropogenic forcing dominating after 1900 CE.
Authors: Maeve Upton, Andrew Parnell, Andrew Kemp, Erica Ashe, Gerard McCarthy, Niamh Cahill
Language: English
Topic: Coastal and Marine Dynamics
Subfield: Earth-Surface Processes
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,518
Awards: G1546557, Integrating multidisciplinary geoscientific data into forecasting models to monitor and predict coastal change: Proof of concept in Dublin Bay., G3611315278, INSIGHT_Phase 2, Predicting Sea Levels and Sea-Level Extremes for Ireland, G4074242349, CAREER: Dynamic sea-level trends during the past two millennia, G5098725405, G5129580919, G5171702792, G6671297155, G7354596360, Collaborative Research: How Robust Are Common-Era Sea-Level Reconstructions?, G8591373359, Large-Scale CoPe: Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub (MACH): Researching Complex Interactions Between Coastal Hazards and Risk
OpenAlex ID: W4402553918