Hydrological drought assessment of the Yellow River Basin based on non-stationary model
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Non-stationary hydrological conditions are becoming increasingly common due to climate change and human activities, and pose a novel challenge to the management of water resources and related risks, especially for large basins. However, prevalent research on drought assessment often ignores the non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, we investigate the stationarity of the runoff of the Yellow River Basin, the second-longest basin in China. We use an approach for assessing non-stationary droughts based on the generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape to establish a standardized runoff index containing covariates (SRI_cov) to identify hydrological droughts in the basin from 1986 to 2015. The results show that the runoff was non-stationary in most of the Yellow River Basin, and our model was able to accurately simulate it in each of its regions by integrating such drivers as the climate, vegetation, and consumption of water by humans. SRI_cov provided more accurate results in terms of drought identification than the standardized runoff index (SRI). Hydrological drought in the entire Yellow River Basin peaked around 2002, and extreme droughts have become more prominent since 2005. The drought was more severe in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, and was characterized by a high frequency, intensity, and severity. Our analysis enhances the understanding of hydrological modeling and drought assessment under non-stationary conditions, and contributes to water resource management and adaptation to the risk of drought in a changing environment.
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,460
Awards: G5773176882, G8109326760
OpenAlex ID: W4402695757