Work

Subject to change: quantifying transformation in armed conflict actors at scale using text

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: An extensive theoretical and practitioner literature addresses the drivers and consequences of transformation of violent rebel actors during conflicts. However, measurement challenges constrain large-N empirical study of the effects and consequences of such transformations. This Research Note introduces a strategy to identify periods of transformation and change in the operation of non-state armed militant groups via computational text analysis of trends in reporting on activities. It presents the measurement approach and demonstrates scalability to a corpus of more than 200 militant groups operating from 1989 to 2020. The study concludes by extending a recent analysis of the impacts of uncertainty on conflict termination. An online Appendix demonstrates the advantages and drawbacks of the measurement through a series of case studies.

Source: Political Science Research and Methods

DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2024.26

Author: Margaret J. Foster

Institution: Duke University

Language: English

Topic: Political Conflict and Governance

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,450