Work

Modeling surge dynamics improves coastal flood estimates in a global set of tropical cyclones

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Tropical cyclone-induced storm surge is a major coastal risk, which will be further amplified by rising sea levels under global warming. Here, we present a computational efficient, globally applicable modeling approach in which ocean surge and coastal inundation dynamics are modeled in a single step by the open-source solver GeoClaw. We compare our approach to two state-of-the-art, globally applicable approaches: (i) using a static inundation model to translate coastal water level time series from a full-scale physical ocean dynamics into inundated areas, and (ii) a fully static approach directly mapping wind fields to inundation areas. For a global set of 71 storms, we compare the modeled flooded areas to satellite-based floodplain observations. We find that, overall, the models have only moderate skill in reproducing the observed floodplains. GeoClaw performs better than the two other modeling approaches that lack a process-based representation of inundation dynamics. The computational efficiency of the presented approach opens up new perspectives for global assessments of coastal risks from tropical cyclones.

Source: Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01707-x

Authors: Thomas Vogt, Simon Treu, Matthias Mengel, Katja Frieler, Christian Otto

Institution: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Language: English

Topic: Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life below water

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,290