Clinical decision making under uncertainty: a bootstrapped counterfactual inference approach
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Learning policies for decision-making, such as recommending treatments in clinical settings, is important for enhancing clinical decision-support systems. However, the challenge lies in accurately evaluating and optimizing these policies for maximum efficacy. This paper addresses this gap by focusing on two key aspects of policy learning: evaluation and optimization. METHOD: We develop counterfactual policy learning algorithms for practical clinical applications to suggest viable treatment for patients. We first design a bootstrap method for counterfactual assessment and enhancement of policies, aiming to diminish uncertainty in clinical decisions. Building on this, we introduce an innovative adversarial learning algorithm, inspired by bootstrap principles, to further advance policy optimization. RESULTS: The efficacy of our algorithms was validated using both semi-synthetic and real-world clinical datasets. Our method outperforms baseline algorithms, reducing the variance in policy evaluation by 30% and the error rate by 25%. In policy optimization, it enhances the reward by 1% to 3%, highlighting the practical value of our approach in clinical decision-making. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining bootstrap and adversarial learning techniques in policy learning for clinical decision support. It not only enhances the accuracy and reliability of policy evaluation and optimization but also paves avenues for leveraging advanced counterfactual machine learning in healthcare.
Authors: Hang Wu, Wenqi Shi, Anirudh Choudhary, May D. Wang
Language: English
Subfield: Artificial Intelligence
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,890
OpenAlex ID: W4402937536