Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Time series forecasting plays a critical role in business planning by offering insights for a competitive advantage. This study compared three forecasting methods: the Holt–Winters, Bagging Holt–Winters, and Box–Jenkins methods. Ten datasets exhibiting linear and non-linear trends and clear and ambiguous seasonal patterns were selected for analysis. The Holt–Winters method was tested using seven initial configurations, while the Bagging Holt–Winters and Box–Jenkins methods were also evaluated. The model performance was assessed using the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) to identify the most effective model, with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) used to gauge the accuracy. Findings indicate that the Bagging Holt–Winters method consistently outperformed the other methods across all the datasets. It effectively handles linear and non-linear trends and clear and ambiguous seasonal patterns. Moreover, the seventh initial configurationdelivered the most accurate forecasts for the Holt–Winters method and is recommended as the optimal starting point.
Authors: Somsri Banditvilai, Autcha Araveeporn
Institution: King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,137
Award: G5142229824
OpenAlex ID: W4403071200