Counterfactual-based two-stage trajectory prediction framework for autonomous vehicle navigation systems
Year: 2024
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: Accurate prediction of a vehicle’s trajectory is essential for autonomous driving and robotic operations in a complex, dynamic environment. However, current methods that rely on historical and environmental cues to predict future trajectories make the inner distance between testing and training environments often overlooked. To address this issue, we propose a counterfactual analysis method specifically designed for vehicle trajectory prediction. We begin by constructing a causal graph that includes historical trajectories, future trajectories, and environmental interactions. This graph captures the causal relationships between these elements. Our approach directly intervenes on the trajectory itself, effectively cutting off the inference from the environment to the trajectory. By doing so, we mitigate the negative impact of environmental bias. Furthermore, by comparing observed and intervened trajectory clues, we highlight the influence of environmental distance. Our goal is to improve the accuracy of trajectory prediction. Our counterfactual analysis module integrates seamlessly into various baseline prediction models. Experimental data demonstrates that our method outperforms others on publicly available Argoverse2 motion forecasting benchmarks.
Author: Jiaxing Ren
Institution: University of Science and Technology Beijing
Language: English
Subfield: Automotive Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4403244661