Work

Extending the Dixon and Coles model: an application to women’s football data

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles extends the double Poisson model where two independent Poisson distributions model the number of goals scored by each team by moving probabilities between the scores 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1. We show that this is a special case of a multiplicative model known as the Sarmanov family. Based on this family, we create more suitable models by moving probabilities between scores and employing other discrete distributions. We apply the new models to women’s football scores, which exhibit some characteristics different than that of men’s football.

Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)

DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlae050

Authors: Rouven Michels, Marius Ötting, Dimitris Karlis

Institutions: Bielefeld University, Athens University of Economics and Business

Language: English

Topic: Sports Analytics and Performance

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

Funder: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

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