Work

Time series analysis of comprehensive maternal deaths in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on comprehensive maternal deaths in Brazil have not been fully explored. Using publicly available data from the Brazilian Mortality Information (SIM) and Information System on Live Births (SINASC) databases, we used two complementary forecasting models to predict estimates of maternal mortality ratios using maternal deaths (MMR) and comprehensive maternal deaths (MMRc) in the years 2020 and 2021 based on data from 2008 to 2019. We calculated national and regional standardized mortality ratio estimates for maternal deaths (SMR) and comprehensive maternal deaths (SMRc) for 2020 and 2021. The observed MMRc in 2021 was more than double the predicted MMRc based on the Holt-Winters and autoregressive integrated moving average models (127.12 versus 60.89 and 59.12 per 100,000 live births, respectively). We found persisting sub-national variation in comprehensive maternal mortality: SMRc ranged from 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64, 1.86) in the Northeast to 2.70 (95% CI 2.45, 2.96) in the South in 2021. The observed national estimates for comprehensive maternal deaths in 2021 were the highest in Brazil in the past three decades. Increased resources for prenatal care, maternal health, and postpartum care may be needed to reverse the national trend in comprehensive maternal deaths.

Source: Scientific Reports

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-74704-x

Authors: Mary Catherine Cambou, Hollie David, Corrina Moucheraud, Karin Nielsen-Saines, Warren Scott Comulada, James Macinko

Institutions: University of California, Los Angeles, New York University

Language: English

Topic: Global Maternal and Child Health

Subfield: Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,590