Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived experience. However, a number of non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by the community to secure further advancement of the field whilst ensuring scientific rigour and the appropriate use of attribution findings by stakeholders and associated applications. As part of a concept series commissioned by the World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments and challenges over six key domains relevant to EEA, and provides recommendations of where focus in the EEA field should be concentrated over the coming decade. These six domains are: (1) observations in the context of EEA; (2) extreme event definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) physical modelling methods; (5) impact attribution; and (6) communication. Broadly, recommendations call for increased EEA assessments and capacity building, particularly for more vulnerable regions; contemporary guidelines for assessing the suitability of physical climate models; establishing best-practice methodologies for EEA on compound and record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement to develop scaffolding for impact attribution assessments and their suitability for use in broader applications; and increased and ongoing investment in EEA communication. To address these recommendations requires significant developments in multiple fields that either underpin (e.g., observations and monitoring; climate modelling) or are closely related to (e.g., compound and record-shattering events; climate impacts) EEA, as well as working consistently with experts outside of attribution and climate science more generally. However, if approached with investment, dedication, and coordination, tackling these challenges over the next decade will ensure robust EEA analysis, with tangible benefits to the broader global community.
Source: Frontiers in Climate
Authors: Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Lisa V. Alexander, Andrew D. King, Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Clair Barnes, Douglas Maraun, Rupert F. Stuart-Smith, Aglaé Jézéquel, Emanuele Bevacqua, Samantha Burgess, Erich Fischer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Joyce Kimutai, Gerbrand Koren, Kamoru Abiodun Lawal, Seung-Ki Min, Mark New, Romaric C. Odoulami, Christina M. Patricola-DiRosario, Izidine Pinto, Aurélien Ribes, Tiffany A. Shaw, Wim Thiery, Blair Trewin, Robert Vautard, Michael Wehner, Jakob Zscheischler
Institutions: Australian National University, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, Climate Change Research Centre, The University of Melbourne, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Imperial College London, University of Graz, University of Oxford, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, École Polytechnique, École nationale des ponts et chaussées, Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, École Normale Supérieure - PSL, Sorbonne Université, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Edinburgh, Utrecht University, University of Cape Town, African Center of Meteorological Application for Development, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Yonsei University, University of Bristol, Iowa State University, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, Université de Toulouse, University of Chicago, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Bureau of Meteorology, Université Paris-Saclay, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,125
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, European Commission, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Monash University, African Union, African Union Commission, Office of Science, Natural Environment Research Council, Australian Research Council, Biological and Environmental Research
Awards: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, G1337544421, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Collaborative Research: Understanding the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on summertime climate change, Extreme events under climate change, G3083819904, G431656814, G434337789, innovative MachIne leaRning to constrain Aerosol-cloud CLimate Impacts (iMIRACLI), Untersuchung kombinierter Extremereignisse mit großen Ensembles von Klimamodellsimulationen, Global Surface Air Temperature (GloSAT), VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS: COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN DRIVERS AND COASTAL IMPACTS, G6785794070, G8294379553, EXTREME EVENTS: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION
OpenAlex ID: W4403377404