Work

Bounding the generation time distribution uncertainty on R 0 estimation from exponential growth rates

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: The basic reproduction number R0 is one of the main parameters determining the spreading of an epidemic in a population of susceptible individuals. Wallinga and Lipsitch proposed a method for estimating R0 using the Euler–Lotka equation, which requires the Laplace transform of the generation interval distribution. The determination of the generation time distribution is challenging, as the generation time is not directly observable. We prove upper and lower bounds on R0 using only the first few moments of the generation interval distributions and study the sensitivity of the bounds to these parameters. The bounds do not require the exact shape of the generation interval distribution and give robust estimates of the r−R0 relationship.

Source: Journal of Biological Dynamics

DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2024.2410720

Authors: James Cochran, Bogdan Oancea, Dan Pirjol

Institutions: University of Alabama, University of Bucharest, Stevens Institute of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,533

OpenAlex ID: W4403452965

FWCI: 0.377

Cites: 22

Cited by: 1

Related to: 10