Work

Modelling pollutants transport scenarios based on the X-Press Pearl disaster

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: The MV X-Press Pearl accident near Sri Lanka in May 2021 released several pollutants into the ocean, including 1843.3 t of urea, raising concerns about the impact on the region. This study uses a coupled ocean (NEMO)–biogeochemistry (ERSEM) model to simulate urea dispersion under various scenarios. While it doesn't directly reflect the real accident, it provides insights into the potential impact of similar chemical spills. By adjusting tracer release rates and timing, we assessed their impact on the distribution of the chemical plume. Findings show slower release rates prolong higher urea concentrations, potentially causing phytoplankton blooms, while monsoon conditions significantly affect dispersal patterns. Due to a lack of publicly available urea observations, we used particle tracking experiments validated with data on plastic nurdle beaching. This research shows how a simpler, affordable scenario approach could inform the management of chemical spills without a fully developed operational oceanographic system. • Pollutants spread depends on accident timing more than release rate, and may reach neighboring countries. • Assuming passive tracers, a 1843.3t urea leak in 1h results in up to 52.97μM. Unlikely toxic; may cause phytoplankton blooms. • This study shows urea release's potential effects in many scenarios, discussing possible model use to support policymaking.

Source: Marine Pollution Bulletin

DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117129