Multiday Soil Moisture Persistence and Atmospheric Predictability Resulting From Sahelian Mesoscale Convective Systems
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Skill in predicting where damaging convective storms will occur is limited, particularly in the tropics. In principle, near‐surface soil moisture (SM) patterns from previous storms provide an important source of skill at the mesoscale, yet these structures are often short‐lived (hours to days), due to both soil drying processes and the impact of new storms. Here, we use satellite observations over the Sahel to examine how the strong, locally negative, SM‐precipitation feedback there impacts rainfall patterns over subsequent days. The memory of an initial storm pattern decays rapidly over the first 3–4 days, but a weak signature is still detected in surface observations 10–20 days later. The wet soil suppresses rainfall over the storm track for the first 2–8 days, depending on aridity regime. Whilst the negative SM feedback initially enhances mesoscale rainfall predictability, the transient nature of SM likely limits forecast skill on sub‐seasonal time scales.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl109709
Authors: C. M. Taylor, C. Klein, B. L. Harris
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,900
Awards: G1188192778, G1957233319, GCRF African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (African SWIFT), G275618169, Land Impacts on Mesoscale Convective Systems, G3125189335, G3307742640, G4150808962, G4532327735, G4592778004, G5016275509, G5072611438, G6309142472, G682022871, G7196605538, G7502911137, G7685872390, G7697724472, Options for Net Zero Plus and Climate Change Adaptation
OpenAlex ID: W4403689920