Strong Linkage Between Observed Daily Precipitation Extremes and Anthropogenic Emissions Across the Contiguous United States
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: The results of probabilistic event attribution studies depend on the choice of the extreme value statistics used in the analysis, particularly with the arbitrariness in the selection of appropriate thresholds to define extremes. We bypass this issue by using the Extended Generalized Pareto Distribution (ExtGPD), which jointly models low precipitation with a generalized Pareto distribution and extremes with a different Pareto tail, to conduct daily precipitation attribution across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We apply the ExtGPD to 12 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and compare counterfactual scenarios with and without anthropogenic emissions. Observed precipitation by the Climate Prediction Center is used for evaluating the GCMs. We find that greenhouse gases rather than natural variability can explain the observed magnitude of extreme daily precipitation, especially in the temperate regions. Our results highlight an unambiguous linkage of anthropogenic emissions to daily precipitation extremes across CONUS.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl109553
Institutions: University of Iowa, Princeton University, High Meadows Environmental Institute, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives, Université Paris-Saclay, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,900
OpenAlex ID: W4403690322