Work

Development of PM2.5 Forecast Model Combining ConvLSTM and DNN in Seoul

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations is essential for public health management, especially in areas affected by long-range pollutant transport. This study presents a hybrid model combining convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) and deep neural networks (DNNs) to enhance PM2.5 forecasting in Seoul, South Korea. The hybrid model leverages ConvLSTM’s ability to capture spatiotemporal dependencies and DNN’s strength in feature extraction, enabling it to outperform standalone CMAQ and DNN models. For the T1 forecast (6 h averages), the ConvLSTM-DNN model exhibited superior performance, with an RMSE of 7.2 µg/m3 compared to DNN’s 8.5 µg/m3 and CMAQ’s 10.1 µg/m3. The model also maintained high categorical accuracy (ACC) and probability of detection (POD) for critical PM2.5 levels while reducing false alarms (FARs), particularly in bad and very bad events. Although its performance decreases over extended forecast periods, the ConvLSTM-DNN model demonstrates its utility as a robust forecasting tool. Future work will focus on optimizing the network structure to improve long-term forecast accuracy.

Source: Atmosphere

DOI: 10.3390/atmos15111276

Authors: Ji-Seok Koo, Kyung-Hui Wang, Hui-Young Yun, Hee-Yong Kwon, Youn-Seo Koo

Institution: Anyang University

Language: English

Topic: Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting

Subfield: Environmental Engineering

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,728