Work

Ensemble modeling of the hydrological impacts of climate change: A case study of the Baro River sub-basin, Ethiopia

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Given the Baro River basin's high climatic variability and frequent flooding, climate change is expected to exacerbate the existing issues in the region.Three best-performing climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to examine the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Baro River sub-basin.The ensemble of the climate models were bias-corrected for the climate change analysis and a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to examine the impact of the climate changes under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in the future (2031-2060).The climate change scenarios projected an increase in precipitation and temperature under all scenarios.Consequently, annual increase in surface runoff, water yield, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) was reported by 30.33% (44.67%), 6% (18.1%,), and 4.49% (6.63%) and decline in groundwater by 13.17% (2.64%) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5),respectively.The rise in temperature and PET could be responsible for the decline in groundwater, while the projected increase in precipitation is expected to enhance surface runoff, perhaps leading to flooding.This requires an improved water management policy that involves all sectors and takes into account the equity for different users.

Source: Hydrology research

DOI: 10.2166/nh.2024.066

Authors: Bekele Terefe Gebisa, Wakjira Takala Dibaba

Institutions: Bule Hora University, Jimma University

Language: English

Topic: Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Subfield: Water Science and Technology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Clean water and sanitation, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,150