Work

Issues Associated With the Formulation of a Small Area Model for Estimation of State-Level Crime Victimization Rates

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Subnational estimation is an important and challenging problem in the context of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Direct estimates for subnational domains are often unreliable due to small sample sizes. Model-based procedures have potential to improve upon direct estimators. However, model-based estimation presents several new challenges. One must identify suitable covariates, and an appropriate model form must be specified. This article discusses issues associated with the formulation of a small area model for production of state-level estimates of crime victimization rates. An analysis of direct estimates and covariates motivates the development of a Bayesian multivariate model. A model in the original scale is compared to a model in the log scale. Efficiency gains from the model relative to the direct estimators are examined. One challenge is that direct estimates can equal zero. Two ways of handling zero direct estimates are discussed.

Source: Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

DOI: 10.1177/10439862241289784

Author: Emily Berg

Institution: Iowa State University

Language: English

Topic: Survey Sampling and Estimation Techniques

Subfield: Statistics and Probability

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: bronze

Funders: Iowa State University, Bureau of Justice Statistics