Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: In May 2024, a chickenpox outbreak was reported at Xiasha Primary School located in Nanshan District, Shenzhen City, China, with a total of 12 cases identified. Despite thorough on-site investigations, the source of infection remained undetected. The purpose of our study was to infer the timing and duration of the infectious period of the initial case using modeling techniques, thereby deducing the identity of the source. METHODS: We conducted an individual contact survey within the class affected by the epidemic and utilized an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate the key parameters related to the timing of the infectious source's emergence and the duration of its infectiousness. The point estimates derived from the ABM served as prior information for a subsequent Bayesian analysis, which in turn provided the posterior distribution for these parameters. RESULTS: Our models suggested the infection source entered the classroom around April 24th (95% credible interval: April 22nd to April 26th), with an infectious period of approximately two days. Based on these findings, we should aim to detect students who may have been absent due to atypical chickenpox symptoms during this period and closely examine teachers who were present for two consecutive days for any indication of potential infection. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the efficacy of combining contact surveys with mathematical modeling for outbreak source tracing, offering a novel approach to supplement field epidemiological surveys. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.
Source: BMC Infectious Diseases
Authors: Chang-Wei Liang, Qiu-Ying Lv, Zhi-Gao Chen, Bin Xu, Ying-Si Lai, Zhen Zhang
Language: English
Subfield: Epidemiology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,990
Award: G4531562093
OpenAlex ID: W4404142453