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Climate Conundrum: A Wet or Dry European and Northern African Climate During the Middle Miocene

Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: End of 21st‐century hydroclimate projections suggest an expansion of subtropical dry zones, with Mediterranean and Sahel regions becoming much drier. However, paleobotanical assemblage evidence from the middle Miocene (17‐12 Ma), suggests both regions were instead humid environments. Here we show that by modifying regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in an Earth System Model (CESM1.2) simulation of the middle Miocene, the increased ocean evaporation and integrated water vapor flux overrides any drying effects associated with warming‐induced land‐surface evaporation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These modifications markedly reduce the bias in the model‐data comparison for this period. A vegetation model (BIOME4) forced with simulated climatologies predicts both regions were dominated by mixed forest, which is largely consistent with the paleobotanical record. This study unveils the potential for wetter subtropical Mediterranean climates associated with warming, presenting an alternative scenario from future drying projections with localized SST warming governing regional climate change.
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl109499
Authors: R. P. Acosta, N. J. Burls, M. J. Pound, C. D. Bradshaw, J. McCoy, M. Gibson, J. M. K. O’Keefe, S. J. Feakins
Institutions: George Mason University, Northumbria University, Met Office, University of Exeter, Morehead State University, University of Southern California
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,900
Funders: National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NERC Environmental Bioinformatics Centre, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, Royal Society, Sight Research UK, Office of Nuclear Energy, Natural Environment Research Council
Awards: G1343344647, NSF/GEO-NERC: Fungi in a Warmer World, Collaborative Research: Characterizing the drivers of hydroclimate change over western North America and Europe in response to the global warmth of the middle Miocene, G194328251, G2597266851, CAREER: Understanding Cloud Feedback and Natural Aerosol Fingerprints to Interpret Past Warm Climate Forcing and Constrain Tropical Climate Sensitivity, G4650032660, G6035968735, Collaborative Research: Characterizing the drivers of hydroclimate change over western North America and Europe in response to the global warmth of the middle Miocene
OpenAlex ID: W4404146192
FWCI: 1.302
Cites: 61
Cited by: 7
Related to: 10