Work

Partisanship in the Trump Trade War: Evidence from County-Level Crop Planting Data

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: s In 2018, the US–China trade war drove down the price of many US agricultural goods. While many farmers responded by planting alternative crops instead, others continued planting the low-value crops, with a high cost to their bottom line and resulting in a large number of agricultural bankruptcies. Why did some farmers disregard their own economic interests and plant low-value crops during the trade war? We argue that political preferences partially explain farmer behavior. Matching geo-referenced crop data to product-level sanctions lists from China, we calculate county-level changes in the planting of crops affected by the tariffs. We find that counties with a higher Trump vote share in the 2016 election were significantly less likely to change planting decisions due to the trade war. This suggests that partisanship may affect the economy more broadly than previously realized.

Source: International Studies Quarterly

DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae141

Authors: Shannon Carcelli, Kee Hyun Park

Institutions: University of Maryland, College Park, Arizona State University

Language: English

Topic: Agricultural economics and policies

Subfield: Safety Research

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Peace, justice, and strong institutions, Zero hunger

Open Access status: bronze

Funders: National Science Foundation, Arizona State University, School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State University