Internal Noise Interference to Warnings of Tipping Points in Generic Multidimensional Dynamical Systems
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: . A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation because of the center manifold theorem. It is often tacitly assumed that the same is true in the presence of stochasticity or noise so that, for example, critical slowing down (CSD) indicators can be applied as if the system were one-dimensional. In this work, we show that this is only true when given suitable system observables; specifically, we demonstrate that noise in other dimensions may interfere with indicators of CSD, also referred to as early warning signals (EWS). We point out a generic mechanism by which both variance and lag-1 autocorrelation (AC(1)), as well as other EWS, can fail to signal an approaching bifurcation. This can, in principle, occur whenever one noise source drives multiple system components simultaneously. Even under the favorable assumptions of uncoupled deterministic dynamics and stationary noise, some system observables can then exhibit false negative or false positive CSD indications. We isolate this phenomenon in an example that represents a generic two-dimensional fold-type bifurcation setting.
DOI: 10.1137/24m1669104
Authors: Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers, Peter Ashwin
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Awards: G1604232322, Multiscales and Critical Transitions in the Earth System, G3601144341, G434337789, Förderung von drei explorativen Investitionsbereichen im Kontext der strategischen Neuausrichtung des Potsdam-Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung, Climate Tipping Points: Uncertainty-aware quantification of Earth system tipping potential from observations and models and assessment of associated climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts, Multiscales and Critical Transitions in the Earth System, Tipping Points in the Earth System
OpenAlex ID: W4404224154