Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods
Year: 2022
Type: article
Abstract: This paper compares the ability of several econometric and machine learning methods to nowcast GDP in (pseudo) real-time. The analysis takes the example of Dutch GDP over the period 1992Q1–2018Q4 using a broad data set of monthly indicators. It discusses the forecast accuracy but also analyzes the use of information from the large data set of macroeconomic and financial predictors. We find that, on average, the random forest provides the most accurate forecast and nowcasts, whilst the dynamic factor model provides the most accurate backcasts.
Authors: Dennis Kant, Andreas Pick, Jasper de Winter
Institutions: Erasmus University Rotterdam, De Nederlandsche Bank
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $2,690
OpenAlex ID: W4404310953