Year: 2024
Type: preprint
Abstract: The Greenland Ice Sheet may be nearing a tipping point, transitioning to permanent melting. This article analyses two melt rate time series using the Bayesian Langevin estimation (BLE), providing further evidence for destabilizing melt dynamics, along with new insights from the method's nonlinear parameterisation. Comparing the results for Western Central Greenland and the Nuussuaq peninsula suggests that inland melt dynamics may approach less stable coastal dynamics on slow and fast scales. Both datasets show a significant increase in fast-scale amplitudes since the 1970s, possibly driven by large-scale atmospheric fluctuations. Additionally, the BLE's nonlinear drift proves crucial for obtaining these results, as a linear Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process fails to capture these dynamics due to the oversimplification of a strictly positive autocorrelation function.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Heßler, Martin, Kamps, Oliver
Institution: University of Münster
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4404391972