Work

Time-heterogeneous impacts of global temperature cycle on world business cycle

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: We study the statistical relationship between the world business cycle and the global temperature cycle. To amplify the signal-to-noise ratio, we estimate a two-state latent dynamic process from the original data using the endogenous regime-switching methodology. Subsequently, we apply a time-varying structural VAR analysis to identify the time-heterogeneous relationship between the extracted latent factors. Our findings provide empirical evidence that the global mean temperature cycle has a negative impact on the world business cycle during super El Niño periods, which are characterized by relatively high temperature variance records given the past information.

Source: Journal of Applied Economics

DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2024.2428737

Author: Kyungsik Nam

Institution: Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

Language: English

Topic: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,533