Work

Seasonal Upwelling Forecasts in the California Current System

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Coastal upwelling plays a vital role in the support and maintenance of productive marine ecosystems throughout the California Current System (CCS). Here, we evaluate upwelling forecast skill using ∼30 years of seasonal reforecasts from four global climate models contributing to the North American Mulitmodel Ensemble (NMME). The models skillfully predict upwelling intensity throughout much of the CCS in boreal winter, and in the South‐Central CCS in spring/summer. The models also skillfully predict various aspects of upwelling phenology, including the timing of the spring transition, as well as the total vertical transport integrated over the course of the upwelling season. Climatic sources of forecast skill vary with season, with contributions from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation in winter‐spring, and the North Pacific Oscillation and the North Pacific Meridional Mode in the winter‐summer. Our results highlight the potential of seasonal climate forecasts to inform management of upwelling‐sensitive marine resources.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2024gl111083

Authors: Dillon J. Amaya, Michael G. Jacox, Michael A. Alexander, Steven J. Bograd, Liwei Jia

Institutions: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center, University of California, Santa Cruz, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Language: English

Topic: Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

Subfield: Oceanography

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Life below water, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,900