Work

Changes in ecosystem carbon sequestration and influencing factors from a ’Past-Future’ perspective: A case study of the Tarim River

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Amid global warming and intensified human activities, the carbon sequestration (CS) capacity of terrestrial ecosystems faces significant pressure. Ecological Water Conveyance (EWC) projects, by altering land use patterns, have become a key approach to addressing this issue. Therefore, the critical question this study aims to solve is how to enhance regional CS by optimizing EWC measures, based on understanding the relationship between land use changes and CS. To address this, we propose an integrated framework that couples the PLUS-InVEST-OPGD models, adopting a 'past-future' perspective to explore the relationship between CS and land use changes in the context of EWC. The study found that during the historical period (2000-2020), CS in the Tarim River (TR) area exhibited a pattern of ' first increasing, then stabilizing.' Between 2000 and 2010, the total CS increased by 3.5 × 10^6 Mg, accompanied by an expansion of forested areas along the riverbanks and within national parks. However, from 2010 to 2020, the total CS increased by only 0.3 × 10^6 Mg, with forested areas along the riverbanks and within national parks remaining relatively stable. Under three future development scenarios—Natural Increase Scenario (NIS), Farmland Protection Scenario (FPS), and Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS)—the differences in CS between NIS and FPS are minimal, amounting to only 0.01 × 10^6 Mg. However, under the EPS, CS significantly increases, with an estimated increment of approximately 1.1 × 10^6 Mg. In the EPS, both farmland and forested areas expand. Through single-factor and interactive detection analyses, we found that NDVI, average annual groundwater depth, and DEM are critical for understanding the spatial heterogeneity of CS. Additionally, the interaction between groundwater levels and vegetation coverage is identified as a primary driving factor influencing CS. Under the current EWC model and prevailing climate and human activity conditions, the CS capacity of ecosystems appears to stabilize. To further enhance the region's CS potential, optimizing EWC strategies is essential. It is recommended to construct a 'surface' water conveyance network through engineering measures, in addition to the existing 'linear conveyance' model, to improve water resource utilization efficiency. The findings of this study are significant not only for enhancing the CS capacity of the Tarim River region but also for providing scientific evidence to support the sustainable development of other arid inland river basins worldwide.

Source: Ecological Indicators

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112861

Authors: Jia Xu, Ayong Jiao, Mingjiang Deng, Hongbo Ling

Institutions: Sichuan University, State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography

Language: English

Topic: Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life on land, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,970