Predictive Models for Foreign Exchange Reserve Dynamics of India
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: In this research paper, we undertake an in-depth examination of the predictive capacity of various regression models in forecasting the foreign exchange reserves of India. Our study focuses on three distinct methodologies: multiple regression, polynomial regression, and ridge regression. The system architecture for this study incorporates a structured pipeline for data preprocessing, feature selection, and model evaluation, ensuring consistent handling and analysis of economic indicators that impact foreign reserves. Through meticulous analysis, we assess the accuracy of each model to provide extensive insights into their predictive efficacy. The multiple regression model, with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9317, emerges as a reliable tool for explaining the fluctuations in Indian foreign exchange reserves. Its ability to acquire the nuances of multiple predictors contributes significantly to its predictive power. Expanding upon this foundation, polynomial regression demonstrates remarkable precision, boasting an impressive R2 value of 0.9963. This polynomial approach, characterized by its flexibility in fitting complex data patterns, showcases its superiority in capturing the intricacies of the reserve dynamics. Moreover, the ridge regression model, with an R2 value of 0.9934, reinforces the vigorousness of our analysis. By mitigating multicollinearity and overfitting, ridge regression offers a balanced compromise between bias and variance, enhancing the overall predictive performance. These findings underscore the prominence of employing diverse regression techniques in forecasting Indian foreign exchange reserves, thereby furnishing policymakers and financial analysts with valuable insights to inform strategic decision-making processes. Our research extends beyond assessing mere numerical accuracy; we inquire into interpretability and robustness of each model, contemplating factors such as model complexity and generalizability. Such insights fortify our understanding of the predictive mechanisms underpinning foreign exchange reserve dynamics, facilitating more informed decision-making in financial policy formulation and risk management.
Authors: Rohit D Poul, Ankush D Sawarkar, Aditya S Baheti, Ubaid Ahmed Shaikh, Anurag Agrahari, Atul Halmare
Institution: Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid:
OpenAlex ID: W4404666980