Work

Interannual Ural Atmospheric Variability Under Slow‐Varying Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Three Quasi‐Equilibrium States

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: In Inner Eurasia, the monthly mean 850‐hPa geopotential height anomaly around the Ural Mountains exhibits a large and irregular interannual variability. Its intrinsic mechanism remains unclear. Based on a nonlinear theoretical model and reanalysis data sets during 1979–2023, we find similar qualitative and quantitative relationships, termed pitchfork‐like (PL) relationships, between the 850‐hPa Ural geopotential height anomaly in June, July, and January, and local soil moisture, snow depth water equivalent, and snow cover in the preceding months, respectively. These months are near the crest and trough of the annual cycle when surface forcing factors vary slowly. These nonlinear PL relationships reveal that the interannual Ural atmospheric variability in June and July (January) is intrinsically a transition between three (two) quasi‐equilibrium states. Moreover, when each forcing factor exceeds its critical threshold, the positive and negative anomaly quasi‐equilibrium states may occur with equal probability, implying a low predictability.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2024gl112109

Authors: Dongdong Li, Renhe Zhang, Jianping Huang

Institutions: Fudan University, Lanzhou University

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,900