Work

Did the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approach

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: In this study, we attempt to infer the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the intra–European Union (EU) agrifood trade from out-of-sample forecasts. We compare the actual level of trade during the COVID-19 period with counterfactual values derived from univariate forecasting models [regARIMA (Linear regression with autoregressive integrated moving average errors) and Holt-Winters methods]. We analyse agrifood imports and exports of specific EU countries and the EU-27 aggregate on the basis of monthly data for the period from January 2010 to February 2022. The findings reveal a significant decrease in trade activity in the first year of the pandemic that was negatively correlated to COVID-19 restrictions applied by EU countries. Surprisingly, COVID-19 restrictions do not significantly explain the diversified agrifood trade response among EU countries during the pandemic.

Source: Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika)

DOI: 10.17221/253/2024-agricecon

Authors: Mariusz Hamulczuk, Karolina Pawlak, Daniel Sumner, Grzegorz Szafrański

Institutions: Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Poznań University of Life Sciences, University of California, Davis, University of Łódź

Language: English

Topic: COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Zero hunger

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $609