Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: . Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 out of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in the CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area less than half of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers, and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past two decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet-dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wetness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest the post-processing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.
Source: Geoscientific model development
Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Reading, Yale University, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, NORCE Research AS, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, Université de Toulouse, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Lund University, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
Language: English
Topic: Fire effects on ecosystems
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,725
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy, European Commission, Norges Forskningsråd, Office of Science, EarthLab, University of Washington, Horizon 2020, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province, Biological and Environmental Research, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
OpenAlex ID: W4405260675